On a chilly Wednesday night in Buffalo, New York, the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks and Buffalo Bulls meet in a do-or-die MACtion UB Stadium clash that could decide who stays alive in the Mid-American Conference championship race. Both teams enter at 5-5 overall and 4-2 in conference play, but only one will leave with momentum heading into the final week. The MACtion game isn’t just about pride—it’s about bowl eligibility, seeding, and the faintest whisper of a shot at the conference title. And despite Miami being listed as a 1.5- to 2.5-point favorite, the history between these teams tells a different story.
Home Field? Not Anymore
Since 2017, the home team has won and covered the spread in seven straight meetings between Miami (Ohio) and Buffalo. That’s not a coincidence—it’s a pattern. But this year, the script feels flipped. Buffalo, despite playing at home, is 2-3 at UB Stadium. Meanwhile, Miami’s road record is also 2-3. The Bulls haven’t looked like a home fortress all season; in fact, their road wins (3-2) outpace their home ones. That’s the twist: Buffalo’s home-field advantage might be more myth than reality. As one analyst noted on YouTube, “Buffalo’s been better on the road this season.” And when you combine that with their 1-7-1 ATS record over the last eight games, the betting public has every reason to be skeptical.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
On paper, Miami’s offense is underwhelming. They average just 192.4 passing yards per game, and their third-down efficiency is barely above average at 40%. But here’s the quiet strength: their defense, while porous against the run (ranked 126th nationally in rushing success rate), is top-50 in pass defense, holding opponents to a 40.8% success rate. That’s the key. Buffalo’s offense, led by QB Anthony Johnson, has been a mess lately. After getting torched by Central Michigan for 38 points—thanks in large part to two defensive touchdowns and a leaky secondary—they’ve scored 19 or fewer in three of their last four games. Nik McMillan’s 122-yard, two-TD performance against CMU was a rare bright spot, but it’s not sustainable when the rest of the offense can’t protect the ball or move the chains.
Meanwhile, Miami’s offense has been methodical, not explosive. They don’t need to score 35 to win. They need to control the clock, avoid turnovers, and let their defense do the rest. Against Toledo last week, they gave up 143 yards on the ground but held the Rockets to just 20 points. That’s the formula: suffocate the run, force mistakes, and let Henry Hesson manage the game. He doesn’t need to be a star—he just needs to not be a liability.
The Over is the Bet
Here’s where the experts are split—and where the smart money is going. SportsLine’s model simulated this game 10,000 times and is leaning Over on the 38.5-point total. Why? Because these two teams have combined for 40 or more points in five of their last six meetings. Miami has gone over in five of their last nine games. Buffalo’s been over in three of their last five. Even the spread varies between 38.5 and 39.5 across books, but the trend is clear: this game won’t be a defensive slugfest. The notion that Buffalo can’t score against Miami? Maybe. But Miami’s defense isn’t good enough to shut them down completely. And Buffalo, desperate and playing at home, will push the pace.
“The teams are too evenly matched for a blowout,” said a Covers.com analyst. “But they’re also too sloppy defensively to keep it under 35.” That’s the sweet spot. The total’s set at 38.5. That’s not high—it’s just right.
Who Wins? And Why It Matters
Buffalo’s season hinges on this game. A loss means they’re likely headed to a lower-tier bowl, if any. Miami, meanwhile, is fighting for a top-four MAC finish and a potential bye in the conference championship. The RedHawks lead the all-time series 17-9, but Buffalo’s won three of the last five. This isn’t about legacy—it’s about survival.
Analysts are split. One YouTube commentator believes Miami wins outright, citing Buffalo’s offensive struggles. Another, from Covers.com, is betting on the Bulls as the slight underdog: “Their defense will give Miami’s inexperienced QB too many problems.” But here’s the reality: Miami’s QB isn’t inexperienced—he’s steady. And Buffalo’s defense? It gave up 38 points to Central Michigan. That’s not a team that can shut down anyone.
So who wins? Miami, by a field goal. But the real story? The total. The Over hits. The game will be tight, ugly, and full of mistakes. But it will also be high-scoring by MAC standards. And that’s the bet that pays off.
What’s Next?
If Miami wins, they’ll likely finish 6-5 and need a bowl invite based on academic progress rate. Buffalo, at 5-6, would need a win in their final game against Northern Illinois to even reach bowl eligibility. The winner of this game becomes the de facto favorite to represent the MAC East in the conference title game—unless Toledo, the conference’s dominant team, stumbles. But for now, this is the battle that matters most.
Historical Context: The MAC’s Quiet Rivalry
This isn’t just another midweek game. Since 2010, Miami (Ohio) and Buffalo have been the two most consistent programs in the MAC East, often trading top-three finishes. Their rivalry peaked in 2018 when Buffalo upset Miami 31-28 in double overtime on the road. Since then, the home team has dominated—but not because of crowd noise. It’s because of familiarity. The plays, the tendencies, the tempo—they know each other too well. That’s why games between them are often low-scoring in the first half and explosive in the fourth. This one will be no different.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Miami favored despite their weak offense?
Miami’s advantage isn’t offense—it’s consistency and experience. Their defense ranks in the top 50 nationally in pass efficiency, and they’ve held opponents under 20 points in four of their last six games. Buffalo’s offense has been unreliable, scoring 19 or fewer in three of their last four. Miami’s QB, Henry Hesson, may not be flashy, but he’s made fewer mistakes than Buffalo’s Anthony Johnson, who’s thrown 10 interceptions this season.
Has Buffalo ever beaten Miami in Buffalo recently?
No. Since 2017, the home team has won and covered the spread in seven straight meetings. That includes three wins by Buffalo at UB Stadium—but those were all in 2017, 2018, and 2020. Since then, Miami has won in Buffalo twice, including a 24-21 win in 2023. The trend suggests home-field advantage is fading, and Miami’s recent road wins prove they can win away from Oxford.
Why are experts leaning Over on the total points?
Because these teams have combined for 40+ points in five of their last six meetings. Miami’s gone over in five of nine games, Buffalo in three of five. Even though both defenses have flaws, neither can fully contain the other. Miami’s pass defense is strong, but Buffalo’s Nik McMillan can stretch the field. And when Buffalo falls behind, they’ll abandon the run and throw more—opening the door for big plays.
What happens if Miami loses?
Miami’s bowl hopes become slim. At 5-6, they’d need a win against Western Michigan in their final game and a lot of help from other teams to reach bowl eligibility. More critically, they’d lose control of the MAC East. Buffalo, even at 5-6, would leapfrog them in tiebreakers due to head-to-head results. This game is essentially a de facto elimination match for the division title.
Is Buffalo’s 1-7-1 ATS record a red flag?
Absolutely. That record includes losses to Akron, Kent State, and Central Michigan—all teams ranked below them in the MAC. Their last cover was in October against Eastern Michigan. The Bulls have been outscored by an average of 12.4 points in their last eight games against the spread. Even with home-field advantage, their recent form suggests they’re not trustworthy as a favorite or underdog.
How does this game impact the MAC Championship?
The winner of this game becomes the most likely representative of the MAC East. Toledo (7-3) controls their own destiny in the West, but if Miami wins, they’d finish 6-5 and likely hold tiebreakers over Buffalo and Kent State. A Buffalo win keeps them alive, but they’d still need Toledo to lose to Western Michigan to have a shot at the title game. This game doesn’t decide the champion—but it decides who gets to compete for it.